The Red River Rivalry is back, and this year’s game is loaded with drama and questions that could turn the outcome on its head. Can Oklahoma pull off a win without their star quarterback John Mateer, who is recovering from hand surgery? And how will Texas respond after a tough loss to Florida, with Arch Manning set to make his first start in this legendary rivalry? These are the storylines everyone will be watching closely when these two college football giants square off at the Cotton Bowl for the 121st time this Saturday.
The Sooners, currently ranked No. 6 and undefeated at 5-0, face off against a 3-2 Texas squad that’s hungry for a win to salvage their season. The big questions hanging over the game: Will Mateer be able to return early or will Texas capitalize on his absence? Can Arch Manning, Texas’s young quarterback, rise to the occasion in his debut Red River Rivalry start? And what impact will Texas’s defense have, especially after allowing 27 points to a Florida team that many expected to struggle?
Now, let’s hear from the experts at The Dallas Morning News as they weigh in with their predictions — and buckle up, because opinions vary quite a bit on how this one will unfold.
Expert Predictions:
Lia Assimakopoulos, College Sports Insider: "The question isn’t just whether Arch Manning is better than an injured John Mateer or even a healthy Michael Hawkins, but what the numbers tell us. So far, they don’t support that notion. Oklahoma would clearly benefit if Mateer suits up, but in the grand scheme, it might not change the final outcome. This could be the weekend Texas’s hopes for the College Football Playoff end. Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Texas 17."
Tim Cowlishaw, Columnist: "Both teams face challenges — John Mateer fighting through injury and Arch Manning aiming just to play well. However, this isn't the same situation Oklahoma faced in past Red River games with key players missing. After five weeks, the Sooners’ve proven to be the stronger team. Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Texas 19."
R.J. Coyle, Trending Sports Producer: "It’s an unfortunate timing for Arch Manning and the Longhorns to step into the Cotton Bowl spotlight. Manning’s confidence has taken some hits recently, especially after the game in Florida, and Oklahoma’s defense, racking up 14 sacks in their last two games, will be relentless. Historically, Longhorns dominated the last two blowouts in this rivalry (2024 and 2022), but expect the Sooners to claim victory on Saturday. Prediction: Oklahoma 48, Texas 23."
Selby Lopez, College Sports Editor: "Without John Mateer, Texas will need their defense to deliver an extraordinary performance to win. But considering that this same defense allowed a struggling Florida offense to put up 27 points, and given the ongoing struggles of Arch Manning and Texas’s offense, pulling off a win looks unlikely. Prediction: Oklahoma 21, Texas 13."
Shawn McFarland, Sports Reporter: "Texas hasn’t managed to put together a cohesive offense against strong conference opponents so far. The Sooners’ quarterback status remains uncertain due to Mateer’s health. Both teams boast solid defenses, with Texas having a slight advantage, which could be decisive here. Prediction: Texas 24, Oklahoma 21."
Emma Moon, Sports Intern: "Texas hasn’t had a defining win yet this season, but their defense has been impressive, allowing just 12 points per game and only seven touchdowns this year. That kind of defensive effort might be enough to edge out an Oklahoma team likely missing John Mateer. Prediction: Texas 23, Oklahoma 20."
Kevin Sherrington, Columnist: "Coach Steve Sarkisian expects John Mateer to start at quarterback, which spells trouble for Texas if true. With Mateer on the field, Oklahoma would be heavy favorites, but since he’s probably out, it’s still a tough game for the Longhorns. Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Texas 20."
Brad Townsend, sports enterprise reporter: "Initially, I thought this game might be a low-scoring slugfest until seeing Florida slice through Texas’s defensive line repeatedly. If Mateer plays, even at near full strength, expect a double-digit win from Oklahoma. Prediction: Oklahoma 21, Texas 16."
And this is the part most people miss: the game isn’t just about who wins or loses, but about how these teams respond to adversity. Can Oklahoma overcome uncertainty with Mateer’s injury? Will Texas finally find cohesion on offense and prove their defense can stop a fierce Sooners attack? These are the debates that make the rivalry so captivating.
So, here’s a question for you: Do you think Oklahoma’s depth and talent will be enough to overcome the loss of John Mateer, or might Texas’s stingy defense and Arch Manning’s potential surprise under pressure tip the scales? What’s your take? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below — we want to hear from you!
