Bold takeaway: Nearly half of all Bitcoin is currently under water, and that overhead supply is a key obstacle to forming a durable price bottom.
Around 9.31 million Bitcoin are being held at a loss.
CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn explained on X that a true bottom tends to take time to emerge, illustrated by the Bitcoin Supply In Loss indicator. This metric tracks the total amount of Bitcoin that’s currently at a net unrealized loss. The chart shows this indicator falling to zero when Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in October, then rising sharply during the subsequent bear move. Today, the indicator sits at 9.31 million BTC—the highest since the 2022 bear market. In percentage terms, that represents about 46% of all circulating supply.
In practical terms, investors in loss typically hope for price retests of their cost basis so they can exit at break-even or small profits. Maartunn notes that a large share of holders is waiting to sell at those levels.
Another on-chain metric, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), helps identify where those underwater buyers originally bought in. The URPD chart shows the loss-supply cluster mainly between $80,000–$95,000 and $105,000–$120,000. Given current price levels, many of these investors could remain underwater for a while unless the market moves closer to those price ranges.
As prices rise, this overhead supply can press down the rally because those underwater holders may dump to cut losses. Maartunn puts it plainly: this overhead must be absorbed and redistributed to stronger hands before a durable bottom can form.
Historically, the last bear phase saw the loss-supply metric dip even lower, followed by a lengthy consolidation before the loss flow moved to more resolute holders. It remains to be seen how long the current cycle will take to reach a floor.
Current price snapshot: Bitcoin has been trading sideways after bouncing from around $60,000, hovering near $68,600.
Would you agree that the presence of this large underwater supply makes a bottom less likely in the near term, or do you see catalysts that could trigger a quicker revival? Share your perspective in the comments.
